This category will be a collection of raw data and some effort to draw conclusions from the data. At the end of the day, it is the real data that will eventually tell the true story of Covid-19 and if the massive economic & social losses were justified vs the losses caused by the virus.
It is my personal opinion from the beginning that the “cure was worse then the disease”. I held that view on January 31 as panic was just beginning in China, I held that view as panic swept the USA and the west, and still hold the view on April 10th as I write these words and the USA begins to peak. Only time & real data will tell how correct or incorrect I was. However, I stand by my position. I believe that time and data will prove I was correct.
However, I also feel the mainstream media will never admit their mistake, therefore the common narrative will remain that Covid-19 was extremely dangerous, and that the draconian lock-down measures were justified, and without them millions would have died. Social liberties will have been permanently lost, children will have been taught to fear and comply, to not shake hands, to not socially engage people, to fear that everyone is potentially ready to infect them with an invisible and deadly threat.
This unfortunately will be the long term result even if the data proves it was all for nothing more dangerous then what we have already faced in the last decade with multiple past virus outbreaks.
Myths – How smart people are fooled:
I see two main myths that smart people are accepting with-out fact checking:
Myth #1 is that “The Death Rate Is 10 Times Higher Then The Flu”
Myth #2 is that “The Mathematical Models Show that Millions Can Die”
Starting with Myth #2. The issue is that the models are simple projections based on “R0”. If the R0 is low, then the model shows thousands dying. if the R0 is just a little higher, then millions could die. The experts admit the outcomes of high vs low deaths have equal probability. The argument is that millions might die, therefore we need to take extreme measures. However, this makes no logical sense. Because there are many other models that have equal chance to happen that would kill millions, but we do not act on those models. For example, Nuclear Weapons. The world can still be destroyed 10 times over if just one mistake is made by a Nuclear Superpower. Another example is an asteroid hitting the earth. The models are clear, if it happens, millions would die. So what is the difference? If we don’t take action for one threat, why take action for another. There is NO evidence that this virus is going to kill millions.
This brings us to Myth #1, which is that Covid-19 is 10 times more deadly then the flu. This number comes about by a simple trick of statistics. For the flu we count everyone suspected of having the virus. So the denominator is huge. Typically 20-50 million people per year just in the USA. So take a big number and divided by an even bigger number and you get a tiny number. So the “death rate” for the flu is often calculated on the order of 1,000 deaths / 10,000,000 infections = 0.1%. So far, Covid-19 is like 1,000 deaths / 10,000 cases = 10%. So it is all a “trick of statistics”.
This mainstream study, pre-published in the Yale Medical server shows that the prevalence of Cvod-19 is up to 50 times higher then expected and therefore it means the “denominator” is much larger then the media has been reporting and therefore the death rate is MUCH LOWER. In fact, this new study just published April 17th, suggests that Covid-19 death rate would be closer to the “seasonal flu”. Which means the “Millions” predicted to die is wrong.
This study is the first of many that are now happening and the implications are devastating for the “fear mongering”. It will be interesting to see how the Mainstream media dismisses this data and what doctors will come out with excuses why this study is false. Once again, common sense tells me if millions could die, then millions should have died already. To think that the “lock-downs” and “Social Distancing” are the reason why we have so few deaths (lower than all but one flu season as of April 19th), is rubbish. The lock-downs are not why there are so few deaths, the real reason is that this virus is simply not that deadly! (I am not saying it is not deadly. It is. It is just not more deadly then other virus that we have lived with in the past and not taken such extreme measures over.)
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1
Common Causes of Death – Surprise, not Covid-19!
Raw Daily Data from CSSE at Johns Hopkins University
Covid vs Age
Covid vs Age – This chart clearly shows on reason why Italy, Spain, and the UK have higher death rates then Singapore. The key is the higher percentage of Elderly populations and the fact that Covid-19 kills via respiratory infection in the elderly.
This image below is put together by Kevin Drum of Mother Jones and compares the progress of the virus in Italy vs the USA. Italy is considered the worst case, so this shows USA is doing much better. This is a unique and interesting way to compare the progress and severity of the virus. https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/04/the-united-states-has-a-very-low-covid-19-case-fatality-rate/
